A method for forecasting waste quantities

We present a method for forecasting annual waste quantities. The method is based on calculating material specific annual growth rates from trend analyses of time series.

In general, expected material growth rates are obtained from net domestic consumption of certain materials (e.g. paper, glass etc.). This approach is extended by employing waste quantity time series of locally recollected waste types (e.g. household waste bin), their compositions and by population growth scenarios. Expected absolute and per-capitawaste quantities are calculated for the next twenty years, as well as compositions ofwaste types. In a first step, the complete expected potential of waste materials in a defined waste management region is determined. In a second step, material collection rates are defined in order to quantify their effect on the future composition of waste types. The results of the method are validated by comparison with independent forecast sof a responsible waste management body. We show the application of the method for a waste management scenario that has been created under consideration of constraints of an existing municipality.




Copyright: © Wasteconsult international
Source: Waste to Resources 2017 (Mai 2017)
Pages: 13
Price: € 6,50
Autor: Dr.-Ing. Bertram Zwisele
Carsten Böhm

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